KavkazCenter - Is Rice's speech in the Marshall Fund a new edition of Churchill's speech in the Fulton?

Is Rice's speech in the Marshall Fund a new edition of Churchill's speech in the Fulton?

The speech of the US State Dept Chief Condoleezza Rice in the Marshall Fund in Washington should seriously alarm the Kremlin. It seems that Washington has finally decided on their attitude towards Russia after it had occupied territory of the sovereign state and the UN member.

Time will show whether Condoleezza Rice's speech becomes or not a new edition of Churchill's Fulton speech. But today already we can with confidence say that the West, led by the United States, intends to provide a consolidated response to Russia and the consequences of this response might be very sad to Moscow.

One of the most frenzied ideologists of the Russian neo-imperialism (the so-called Ģrising Russia from knees) has expressed concern over the statement made by Condoleezza Rice.

So, the prominent pro-Kremlin ideologue Aleksandr Dugin told reporters that "Ms Rice's speech must be taken seriously".

"American politicians are never making statements which are not followed by actions. It means that soon we are expected to see new surprises from Americans", Dugin explained his concerns.

"If indeed the US is behind the latest financial collapse in Russia then one can assume that they have already started to act. Also there has been some information in mass media about US ambitions to establish its military bases in Georgia and, should this information be true, then Russia will have to somehow respond to these new challenges," noted pro-Kremlin political scientist in his interview to Azerbaijani press.

Some independent analysts and experts, including the Russian ones, state that by its actions Russia has actually restored the Euro-Atlantic cooperation between the US and the EU, it has consolidated NATO and breathed new life into this organization forcing it to recall its very purpose of creation.

In addition, issue of diversification of energy supplies to Europe has at last begun to be seriously discussed in Brussels. Appeals of the new EU members, Poland in the first place, will now certainly be heard.

Rice reminded Moscow about financial investments of the US and the Western countries and also about Russia's unrestricted access to the new technologies which have enabled Moscow to overcome the hard times and maintain its integrity.

"We have treated Russia not as a vanquished enemy, but as an emerging partner. We have supported - politically and financially - Russia's transition to a modern, market-based economy and a free, peaceful society. And we have respected Russia as a great power", Rice reminded and made it clear that ingratitude of Russians will not go without there being some consequences.

"Russia's attack on Georgia merely proved what we had already known - that Russia could use its overwhelming military advantage to punish a small neighbor. But Georgia has survived. Its democracy will endure. Its economy will be rebuilt. Its independence will be reinforced. Its military will, in time, be reconstituted.

And we look forward to the day when Georgia's territorial integrity will be peacefully restored. And our strategic goal now is to make clear to Russia's leaders that their choices could put Russia on a one-way path to self-imposed isolation and international irrelevance. Accomplishing this goal will require the resolve and the unity of responsible countries - most importantly, the United States and our European allies", Rice stressed.

"We cannot afford to validate the prejudices that some Russian leaders seem to have: that if you press free nations hard enough - if you bully them, and you threaten them, and you lash out - they will cave in, and they'll forget, and eventually they will concede. The United States and Europe must stand up to this kind of behavior and must not allow Russia's aggression to achieve any benefit", US Secretary of State said.

"We will not allow Russia to wield a veto over the future of the Euro-Atlantic community. We have made this particularly clear to our friends in Ukraine", she noted and added: "The United States and Europe are deepening our cooperation in pursuit of greater energy dependence - working with Azerbaijan, and Georgia, and Turkey, and the Caspian countries. We will expand and defend open global energy in the economy from abusive practices. There cannot be one set of rules for Russia, Inc. - and another for everyone else.

Latest actions of the most close Moscow's friend the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko are a vivid sign of a rather anxious attitude towards the increasingly sharp response of the US and the West.

Despite the pressure from the Kremlin, the Belarusian leader is not rushing to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moreover, he publicly warned Moscow about the disastrous consequences of any attempts to use the "Georgian scenario" in relation to Belarus by Russia.

Lukashenko is sending unambiguous signals to the West, and has clearly distanced himself from Moscow.

Neither Russia's CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) allies nor even Armenia which is currently occupying the Nagorno-Karabakh region has supported Russia. And this might appear surprising to someone but only at the first glance. Apparently, Yerevan does no longer believe in the long-term patronage of Russia.

Rice's speech meanwhile revealed that US may no longer intend to maintain stability in Russia.

There are more signs of the US intention to go on with their ambitious program of protection of its interests on the Eurasian continent which are currently challenged by Russia and to gradually weaken Russia.

Many Russian experts are being pessimistic about the future of Russia.

"Political isolation of Russia is becoming a fact. Now, on this basis the US and the leading western powers can build a financial-economic and technological isolation, at the same time creating various military threats, making us stretch out our scarce resources, wasting it in useless attempts of reanimation of military industrial complex, striving for technological, food and other kinds of self-sufficiencies. Similar strategy ruined the USSR, while the Russian Federation can be handled with even easier.

One may expect embargo for arms supply, which would undermine significantly our weapons export to India and Arabic states in the Persian Gulf, also making impossible our own rearmament. Russia is no USSR. We buy thermal imagers from France for export and for domestic needs. We buy weapons, electronic components and special materials from the US and Europe. A system of export control over high-tech equipment and double-purpose technologies might be restored, which would make it impossible any attempts of modernization of the country and development of innovative economy", a military expert Pavel Felgengauer particularly writes.

"While our troops got stuck in Georgia and Northern Caucasus, there would be no opportunity to undertake something in the Crimea, even in case our fleet got blocked and ousted from Sevastopol. And the situation is aggravating too in Ingushetia and other places in the North Caucasus, where spread rebel underground activities are going on. As this underground is Islamic one, so far Georgians and the West have not helped them. And now, like it was in times of our occupation in Afghanistan, a temporary tactical anti-Russian alliance by Islam followers and democrats might be formed.

Over the course of a new cold war in the Black Sea water and in other places, the occasions of direct opposition by the military forces of the West and Russia might occur, though, no party would wish escalation. Instead, the West will be rendering a massive economic, financial and military aid to Georgia. Caucasus may become the field of indirect collision of another cold war, like it was about Nicaragua, Afghanistan, Angola and Ethiopia. The Georgian Army that has retained its main force, will be equipped with new tanks, anti-aircraft means, jet fighters and bombers, and high precise weapons. Starting from next year one may expect beginning of the large-scale subversive and partisan activities meant against Russian forces in the buffer zones in Georgia, Abkhazia and Ossetia. In response, Russia will have to increase the capacity of our garrisons in Transcaucasia spending more forces and means on strategically unpromising opposition in the Eurasian back of beyond", Russian military expert concludes.

Economic analysts, in turn, suggest that a powerful drop of the Russian stock market has shown that Russia is to meet with some very serious problems.

Putin's attempts "to patch" economic hole through massive intervention of petrodollars to the market would not have long-term results, and it would be obvious by the end of this year. Outflow of investment is increasing in Russia, and serious investors fleeing the Russian market. Petrodollars would not help without investment and capital turnover.

Against this background, assumptions are sounded more often that the US could begin to support national liberation movements in Russia.

The words of Condoleezza Rice that Russia dug a hole for itself by recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, indirectly indicate that Washington may already be studying the contours of the future political map of the former Russia.

Ruslan Sinbarigov, Kavkaz Center